Last column covered the first way to see the future which was by watching the “cross-pollinators” which are those people or products that can use one discipline to enhance another, totally unrelated business or idea. The second way to see the future is by “surfing” the exponentials.

In 1965 Gordon Moore saw that computer chips were getting cheaper and were getting more powerful as a general rule, BEFORE anyone else did. He surmised that they would double in capacity while price remains constant every 18 months. Calling this Moore’s Law his predictions have been remarkable accurate over the last 47 years. Modern leadership at Intel say it will slow down a little in 2015 where transistor densities should only double every 3 years.

Can you see the exponential waves that you can surf today? Maybe more important; can you see the SPENT waves to know which to get off of?

Spent waves I see in the world today:

-      Web pages. They are now simply for information. A quicker and more informative Yellow Pages. (most under 20’s probably don’t even know what yellow pages are). They are spent as a form of garnering sales and interest in your product.

-      Two party political system. Broken, ineffective, and no fix is on the horizon.

-      Unions.

-      Centralization.

Future waves we need to hitch a ride on:

-      Social interaction via smart phones, twitter, and spontaneous flashes of sales. (Facebook is ALMOST spent as a wave)

-      Specialization. The Long Tail. Becoming REALLY GOOD at one thing.

-      2 minutes of fame. (internet and smartphones have reduced the 15 minutes of fame to a Youtube spot)

-      Marriage of sports and electronics. Shoes and shirts that can measure heart rate, calories, and even cholesterol while jogging.

-      Exporting of health care. Cheaper and now just as good in other countries. Soon to be even more cheap and even better in other countries.

What does this mean for the church? Here are my SPENT waves in the church and ministry:

-      Mega-church: emphasis on size, professionalism, corporate evangelism

-      Centralization

-      “Americanization” missions. (trying to make your mission turning people into mini-Americans)

Future waves in church and ministry:

-      Local-church: emphasis on mystery and sacred. Real experiences as opposed to virtual.

-      Partner missions. Developing a partnership with other churches in other countries to help each other and share with each other.

-      Saying “NO” to people wanting to come to church.

Now these are just what I see based on my cultural exegeting. I am not the expert. Just sharing what I see based on the Wired future predictors. I could be WAY OFF BASE, but maybe, just maybe …

(I totally stole this series of columns from Wired Magazine. They did a magazine devoted to the future thinkers in society today. They talked about John Naisbitt in Megatrends, to Steve Jobs at Apple, and others. But mostly to a guy who in 1992 predicted everyone would have the Web at their fingertips, in 1995 he predicted that the web browser would BE the operating system in computers, in 1999 he predicted that businesses would LIVE in the cloud and not on personal PC’s or company servers, in 2004 he predicted that everything would be social, and he has other predictions that are still coming. His name is Marc Andreessen. Check out the actual articles in Wired, May 2012. This is my take on the vision for the future adapted from these articles)

The advice from Wired Magazine for being able to see the future is first to “look for cross-pollinators”. We all know about cross-pollinators. Those are the people who can see an application in one area and be able to transfer that application to a TOTALLY unrelated field.

-      Swiss engineer Georges de Mestral was frustrated with burrs that kept hooking onto his pants while he went for his daily walk. Under closer inspection he saw the hooks on the burrs that cause the problem as they caught the loops on his corduroys. Georges took a weed and turned it into an idea that we still use today: Velcro.

-      Johannes Gutenberg saw a wine press and the printing press was born.

-      Henry Ford saw a meat packing line and the auto assembly line was born.

But today these cross-pollinators go a little further. They not only want to transfer from one industry to their industry – the future is using or seeing YOUR idea to cross pollinate EVERY industry. Biology is now helping computer science. Bird wings now help design better wind turbines. The future will be totally new disciplines that they don’t teach you in any school.

-      Bio-computing

-      Brain manipulation

-      Automated Political Decision-making

-      LED clothes

-      Virtual homes

What does this mean for the future of religion and church? THAT is an interesting question. Will church services transform into a type of social media? Will there be virtual church services that you can attend with your favorite preachers? Maybe.

But what about another side of the coin. How can we cross-pollinate Christ into the workplace or into social media? I don’t mean simply advertising our church services on Facebook. I think the “church” has a lot to offer this world along with salvation. We offer meaning in a world where purpose is lost. We offer a set of morals in a world where morality is subjective. We offer peace in an angry world. We can offer opportunities for service in a world ready to blow a stress gasket.

The future is not scary, it is exciting. Christianity is not outdated; it is in a PRIME position.

There are so many lessons to learn about human behavior at an airport. A few weeks ago I had the privilege of flying in our post-9/11 world. I had about 3 hours of time to people watch while the airlines sorted themselves out to give me my cramped seat for my next flight to visit my son. Here are a few observations:

1. People drink a lot in airports while waiting. At least it seemed that way since I was stationed at a plug I found across from an airport bar. They probably do this to make their flights go faster. They may have simply needed something to do while waiting. They may have been heading to Vegas. They may be simply looking for the most expensive beer they can find.

2. People do not exercise at airports. The same people who lift weights and walk on treadmills a their hotels will stand on escalators and automated walkways at the airport. I don’t get it. Carry-on luggage is an ideal weight and the handles are more convenient to grasp than barbells.

3. People like to talk on their phones while they’re waiting. It doesn’t matter who they are talking to. Often, their harangues make it seem like they just want to be heard by someone … everyone.

4. Employees who clean the bathrooms at airports are some of the bravest people in the world. Who else is willing to mop up after our less-than-stellar performances? They are truly the jump-suited heroes of air travel.

5. Electrical outlets are a cherished commodity in the terminals. Important people with deadlines to meet congregate around them and protect their space from invaders.

6. Kids, from age two to five, can run away from their moms faster at airports than any other place in the universe. Moms who have only one child are concerned about such escaped, whereas more experienced mothers take a more relaxed, “It takes a village” approach.

7. Most people who ride on motorized carts to get from point A to point B feel a sense of privilege. They enjoy it when the driver beeps at pedestrians. Also the drivers are aggressive people, most likely moonlighting taxi drivers.

8. Overall, people are well-behaved at airports. They do what they are told. They line up in an orderly fashion with minimal pushing or shoving. Approximately, only one out of 17 passengers appears to be agitated, annoyed or confused. (To understand why, please refer to Number 1)

Airports help you to hone your skills of patience and obedience as you repeat the Serenity Prayer over and over again like some Roman Catholic penance. I highly recommend it.

Ever since my parents took me to Arie Crown Theater in Chicago to see the Man of La Mancha I have been a fan of Don Quixote. I liked the music and memorized it as was my habit in High School and it was much later when I actually read the book by Miguel de Cervantes.

Miguel wrote the book in two volumes a decade apart in 1605 and 1615 and ever since it has been at or near the top of every great work of fiction list. First editions go for only $12,000 right now, quite the bargain if you are looking for a Christmas present for me.

Sure I love the music of Dreaming the Impossible Dream, and singing about a shaving bowl as if it is a long lost Golden Helmet. But what I really love is the character of Don Quixote. His sidekick Sancho Panza is the comedy relief to the insanity of his Knight. But I love the Don.

In all of Don’s crazy raving and tipping at windmills he drops gems of dialogue that sink to the heart of today’s problems. “We must attempt the ridiculous if we are to accomplish the impossible” he tells Sancho. What a great statement! Similar to the modern day definition of insanity as doing the same thing you have always been doing and expecting a different outcome but Miguel said it 400 years ago.

This brings up the question of what it takes to make changes in your life, your family, your church, or even your country. I think we are finding this in the current political situation. Tell me: which political candidate do you know that is attempting the ridiculous? Which candidate is simply doing what every other candidate has done within his party for the last 50 years? I would dare answer both are attempting to do the same thing and expecting different outcomes; in other words, both parties and candidates are insane. I long to vote for a Don Quixote, tipping at windmills, attempting the ridiculous to achieve the impossible. Send me that candidate!

David Grzan, in his book on Don Quixote wrote “Too much sanity may be madness and the maddest of all: to see life as it is and not as it should be.”

I think we should form the Quixote Party, who’s with me?

“Those who cannot learn from History are doomed to repeat it.” Santayana, 1905ish.

I love history. It is the only class in High School that I got an “A” on besides art and P.E. Nothing seemed worth studying to me, or worth memorizing, than history.  I used to love to know dates and major events and prided myself on a grasp of place within history. Here’s a quiz for you, I will name some famous or infamous dates, do you know what happened? (give or take a few years)

1000 BC

586 BC

480 BC

330 BC

44 BC

1 ish to 33 ish AD

70 AD

313 AD

800 AD

1215 AD

1492 AD

1520 AD

1776 AD

1800 AD

1846 AD

1861 AD

Do any of these ring a bell with you. I must admit that they are decidedly “Western” dates. I have been trying to increase my knowledge of Eastern History. I have been researching my family’s genealogy for years now and love to find connections to historic events. Even if the connection is simply that they were in the country when this event happened.

I love history. I get a great perspective on today when I get in touch with yesterday. Most historical events have to be taken with a grain of salt. Just because it is written down, doesn’t mean it is important, or even the truth. Until only recently, winners wrote history. Events are significant only to a select few leaders, kings, and nations. If the losers wrote history then there would be dramatically different events that we would memorize in school. Also, there is politics involved no matter who writes it down. EVERYTHING is written with a certain perspective. Even new reports way back when gave a particular bent to the event. The fall of Jerusalem in 70 AD was crushing for the Jews, it was victory for the Romans, and it was expected by the Christians. Martin Luther’s excommunication from the Roman Catholic church in 1520 was heralded as “about time!” by the Roman Catholics, it was mourned then celebrated by the Protestants, and it was ignored by the rest of the world.

What will people say about you 100 years from now? How are you writing YOUR history? What do you want people to remember about you when you are gone? What do you want your Great Grand Children to learn from your life?

I’m going to teach you a concept in three different languages. Probably because I am feeling a little bit of it today.

I heard the Elton John song “Someone saved my life tonight” and I got a weird feeling in my stomach. I don’t know why, every time I hear that song the same thing happens. In fact, I am feeling it right now as I write this. The song was released in 1975 when I was 15 years old. I remember listening to it coming home from my farm job de-tasseling corn for 80 cents an hour. Other than that, I don’t remember anything about that time in my life.

Was there some trauma or event that seared that song into my 15 year old brain so that every time I hear it I get queasy? Or maybe it is something else? Maybe it is a hearkening to a simpler time in my life? Maybe it is nostalgia boiling up in me?

Nostalgia is a Greek word that was coined by a German in 1668. It is a combination of the Greek “nostos” or homecoming with “algos” or pain, grief or distress. It is a painful homecoming that has come to be a wistful yearning for the past by the 1900’s. Is that what I am feeling?

Maybe it is a sense of déjà vu?

Déjà vu is two French words meaning “already seen” or maybe it is déjà entendu meaning “already heard.” It is a sense you get when you see or hear something or even been someplace that you can’t recall ever seeing, hearing, or being. Am I feeling a sense of déjà vu whenever I hear that Elton John song?

I heard another concept in one of the classes on CD that I have been listening to. The concept is Bella Epoch. It is Latin for “bella” meaning beautiful and “epoch” meaning age or period of time. Maybe when I hear that song it brings me to the Bella Epoch of my coming of age. I was driving at 15 (though not quite legal unless it was on farm equipment). I was stretching my teen age wings and getting ready to fly. This was before my first knee surgery. This was before my heart was broken by my first serious crush. This was before I had to worry about a job being more than cash in my pocket for movies and baseball cards. This was before having to decide on a college or even going to college.

This may have been THE Bella Epoch in my life or at least one of them and the song that related to me in that epoch. “Sweet freedom whispered in my ear. You’re a butterfly and butterflies are free to fly. Fly away …”

Or it may simply have been a great song that I remember.

Or I might just be crazy in the head and “They’re coming in the morning with a truck to take me home.”

Duncan was born in Kentucky in 1880. He grew to become a traveling salesman for a Chicago printer and traveled across the United States selling his wares. By the age of 55 he had traveled a lot of miles on pre-expressway roads and had a LOT of good and bad meals in diners along the way.

Duncan and his wife decided to start a list for friends of the several hundred good restaurants around the country. His list became so popular that he bound it and started selling it. The Saturday Evening Post made his list a regular feature and then his business REALLY took off.  Later he added another book that recommended lodgings while traveling.

The problem was the restaurants that did NOT make his list. What were they to do? They started contacting Duncan and asked what the problem was and how they could get on his list.  So Duncan started a consulting business as well as getting columns into many newspapers. His books and his columns were called “Adventures in Good Eating”.

His consulting business grew to the point where he had to make standard for good restaurants. He based it on cleanliness of the tables and décor, on the food’s taste and presentation, the friendliness of the owners and wait-staff, and finally (at his wife’s insistence) at the availability and cleanliness of the restrooms. “Listed” on Duncan’s list was a badge that restaurants used in their window display and in their advertising.

In 1952 Duncan had the wealth to invest in a Bakery Company in Homer, New York. He sold the rights to use his name on their Bakery products since his name was recognized with quality in food. The small company was bought out by a bigger one and again by a bigger one until it finally ended up in the hands to the HUGE conglomerate: Proctor and Gamble. There it became nationwide, especially the cake mix.

I remember loving the sight of a Duncan Hines box on the counter in my mom’s kitchen growing up. it meant a great cake was on its way to our dinner table. I would thank Duncan for his great cakes; which he really had nothing to do with.

We all should thank Duncan for the standards in restaurants that we come to take for granted. The very fact that there are restrooms in restaurants, and CLEAN ones are all due to Duncan Hines (and his wife). The fact that there are standards for food preparation and cleanliness are due to Duncan.

The next time you pull into a roadside diner, thank Duncan, and order some “Moist Deluxe” on me.

There is a urologist at our local hospital called Dr. Waterfall. I found a back and spine doctor called Dr. Payne. This got me thinking if there were others so I went to my trusty computer and searched. Here are a few I found:

Dr. Pepper, a dentist

Dr. Omg

Dr. Ayre, a lung specialist

Dr. Will Tickel, a chiropractor

Dr. Breeder, ob/gyn

Dr. Faris Atchoo, an allergy specialist

Dr. Frankenstein, no really!

Dr. Doom. Didn’t say what his specialty was but who really cares?

Dr. Ners. Bet that is confusing when his name comes over the intercom.

Dr. Slaughter. ALSO don’t care to know his specialty.

Dr. Oldman, geriatrics

The question comes to mind is: did the name lead to the occupation or was it just a coincidence. Outside of the humor of the situation was little Faris Atchoo destined to become an allergy specialist?

How much time and care to we spend naming our children? Do we just pick names that mean something to us or just sound good? Or do we pick names that will set the destiny for that individual? There have been many studies on how names impact your job potential for instance a Jamal has less of a chance applying to a job than a David does. A Shaniqua has a different job potential than a Emily. Outside of the racial area you will also find that people with names at the front of the alphabet have better potential and more success than those at the end of the alphabet. Theories as to why are A’s sit in the front of the room and Z’s in the back. A’s name is memorize where Z’s has less chance of being known and called on. A’s are listed first in an author or editor contribution lists and Z’s are listed last.

Studies will show that even your initials make a difference: A.C.E. will do better in life than D.I.E. And, of course, names associated with notorious historical figures have advantages and disadvantages: Adolf, Jesus, Osama, and even Brittany.

Are you pre-determined by your name? If so, pick the names of your children carefully and watch your own internal prejudices when dealing with people. OR it could simple be a case of “post hoc ergo propter hoc” which says that just because they are connected doesn’t mean that one causes the other.

Steven, Stephan, Stephanos means “crown” the kind of Greek wreath-crown winners of Olympics got and not the other kind of crown (diadem) of kings. That means I will either do well in London this year or I will be a winner in life.

I can’t wait for my trip to London!

The report for school was due tomorrow. It was given months ago and my 6^th grade mind knew that there was no reason even to start on it until the week before since it wasn’t due. I had more important things to do than write a 10 page report on Israel. Now, the night before it is due I figured it was time to start on it.

So there were two sources for information at my house. It was too late to go to a library and I can’t stand libraries anyway. (I always had this unbearable urge to run, screaming, and naked through a library whenever I was in one. Not a good thing at any age.) The first source was the collection of National Geographic’s that my parents kept in the attic of my grandparents’ house (down the driveway). So I went to the house and went through the 20 years of saved National Geographic magazines to find ANYTHING on Israel. I probably found a few things on Jerusalem and wars, etc. The second source of information was the Encyclopedia Britannica that my father kept in his “study”; which was little more than a closet with book shelves in it. Next to books on religion, theology, commentaries, and other reference books I would find the 24 volumes of the Encyclopedia. I found the one that included “I” for Israel and dusted it off.

I remember opening the dusty, musty old book and finding outdated articles about Israel and its founding after WW2. I laid out all my information on the kitchen table and wondered how in the world I was going to come up with 10 pages on Israel. Since I was a half-decent draw-er I drew a few maps of Israel and started plagiarizing in BIG PRINT to make sure I took up as much space as possible. Maybe putting it in a fancy Duo-tang folder would help out my grade.

In the news this week was the information that Encyclopedia Britannica was no longer going to publish a print version of its encyclopedia. I can’t help thinking that kids of today are missing something by not being able to get information out of a musty, dusty book. They can simply do a Google search and find a million times the information sources to plagiarize from than I had available 40 years ago.

Does this mean the kids of today are smarter than the kids 40 years ago?

Plato feared the written word. He thought writing would be the death of society because people no longer had to keep the information in their minds if they could simply read it on a piece of paper. Nowadays people fear the internet because people will no longer have to actually read and search in books. “What happens if there is no electricity? How will you find out what you need to find out?”

I believe a rock is a rock no matter what information is available to it. People with rocks for minds will not absorb information verbally, written, or Youtube. The WAY the information comes to you is secondary to your ability to take that information and turn it into something useful. You can hear it, read it, or see it but the difference is not in the type of information it is in your ability to ABSORB and COLLATE that information.

I probably remembered as much about Israel from my report as kids today do from their internet-enhanced report. I didn’t absorb much, neither do most my contemporaries. A rock is still a rock.

We sat down together for our latest “brainstorming” session. The company was in trouble and each department had to come up with a list of cost saving suggestions and so assigned the supervisors as mediators of a series of “brainstorming” sessions. Mostly garbage ideas came flowing but there were a few gems that turned into real cost saving that we could pass up the chain of command for implementation. I have used these brainstorming sessions in a lot of situations. The common thought is that with both experts and “lay” people who gather into groups can come to a synergy that individuals cannot attain on their own. But there is a problem with this kind of session.

In 1961 a “brain trust” of the best of the best of President Kennedy’s cabinet locked themselves into a room and approved a plan put into motion by the Eisenhower administration to secretly invade Cuba. This brain trust brainstormed themselves into a catastrophic decision.

What happened to the synergy of brainstorming? What happened to the thought that a group of people gathered together can come up with something better than any individual can come up with on his/her own?

Psychologist Irving Janis called the problem with this “groupthink”. He stated that it is a mistake to reason that a group can come to a decision that is better than the individuals. It is assumed that the group is more likely to settle into the mean or the average of the thoughts; extreme dissent and extreme support is shaved away into a groupthink. Many tests have been conducted to show that this settling to the mean is a fallacy. What happens is the extremes are emphasized, usually behind a strong personality who will persuade and bully to one extreme or another. This polarization happens more often is studies then the settling to the mean does. This can lead to terrible decisions made in a vacuum like the Bay of Pigs.

So the question is: Do you make better decisions in a group or as an individual?

There is no doubt that getting together as a group is beneficial. It will bring up ideas and possibilities that you would have forgotten about or simply didn’t know about. It will help with your thinking to be able to “bounce” ideas off others and hear them back. And there is a certain amount of synergy that happens when one idea is proposes, another improves on it a little, another adds to it even more, and you will end up with something greater than the sum of it parts.

But there is also no doubt that decisions CANNOT be made by committee. You cannot lead by taking a poll and choosing the middle/safe road. For better or worse the decisions have to be made and sometimes that decision might be to tell the group “you are too extreme” or even to tell the group “I know you worked on this long and hard and came up with a great idea, but I have to go with my gut on this one and I believe your idea will lead us down a path we don’t want to go down.”

It’s scary, but that is what leadership is. Are you a leader?